The USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab poll released last week found state Sen. Scott Wiener at 47% and Supervisor Connie Chan at 41% among 454 likely voters, with 9% undecided and a margin of error of 4.6 points. We covered the topline in our first story on the poll. This piece looks at a question the numbers can't fully answer: whether the poll is reaching Chan's base.

June's warning sign for pollsters

Before the June primary, three polls showed Chan roughly tied with Saikat Chakrabarti at around 20%, Mission Local reported. One, sponsored by the San Francisco Chronicle, found 36% of Chinese respondents favored Wiener and 19% Chan. On election day Chan finished second with 29.7% while Chakrabarti finished third with 17.9%. Mission Local cites a San Francisco Standard analysis that found Chan led Wiener 35% to 31% in precincts where more than 30% of registered voters are Chinese American.

What the pollster says

The USC team emailed non-English surveys to respondents based on surname matching and offered other languages in its English emails, lead pollster Christian Grose told Mission Local. SFGATE reports the survey was offered in English, Chinese, Spanish, Korean and Vietnamese and fielded Oct. 16 to 19. Still, "it's harder to survey monolingual non-English speakers," Grose said. He also said small subsamples suggested Chinese voters lean toward Chan while some other Asian voters lean toward Wiener; the published results show Asian and Pacific Islander respondents favoring Wiener 59% to 31%.

The rest of the coalition map

According to Mission Local's reading of the poll, Chan draws support from both ends of the spectrum, Democratic Socialists of America sympathizers and Republicans, plus lower-income and working-class voters. Wiener leads among higher-income voters and those who view the Democratic Party favorably. "In any Democrat versus Democrat election, the Republican voters and the Republican leaners may actually decide a very close election," Grose said. Grose told SFGATE the race is "an effective tie" with "a slight edge to Scott Wiener."

Who's on the ballot

The certified list shows Chan as San Francisco Supervisor and Wiener as State Senator, both Democrats, for the seat Nancy Pelosi is leaving.

How to vote

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls and vote centers close at 8 p.m., and mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days. You can check your registration and ballot status at sos.ca.gov/elections. California lets you register and vote the same day at a vote center.

More races and measures: our 2026 election hub.