State Sen. Scott Wiener leads San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan 47% to 41% among likely voters in the race for Nancy Pelosi's 11th Congressional District seat, with 9% undecided, according to a University of Southern California poll released Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026.

Why it matters: The San Francisco Standard, which got the results first, says it is the only independent poll released in the race. Wiener's six-point edge is inside the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 points, less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

How the poll was done

USC's Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, directed by political science professor Christian Grose, surveyed 454 likely voters by email from Oct. 16 to 19. The survey was offered in English, Chinese, Spanish, Korean and Vietnamese. Both candidates are Democrats; California's top-two primary sent them to the November runoff.

Pelosi's endorsement

Pelosi endorsed Chan last spring and has campaigned for her. The poll suggests voters who like Pelosi are split. Wiener wins a slight majority of voters who approve of the outgoing congresswoman, according to the Standard.

"Pelosi has endorsed the person who has far left support, so her endorsement is not translating to Chan support," Grose told the Standard. "On the other hand, Chan might be losing by a lot without the endorsement."

Who backs whom

  • Wiener does best with voters who identify strictly as Democrats and with households earning more than $100,000 a year.
  • Chan does best with independents, voters who call themselves "very liberal," supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America and lower-income voters, including people who describe themselves as working class.

Grose said those splits likely favor Wiener in a midterm year, when higher-income voters and Democrats tend to turn out. "I wouldn't rule her out, but I would rather be Scott Wiener than Connie Chan based on these results," he said.

An earlier poll

A September poll memo posted by Politico, fielded Sept. 15 to 17 among 658 likely voters with a 5.2-point margin of error, showed Wiener ahead 45% to 34% with 21% undecided, and 53% to 47% when undecided voters were pushed to choose. That memo, titled as a Wiener poll memo, also reported that 63% of district voters view Pelosi favorably but only 43% knew she had endorsed Chan. The Standard describes the USC survey as the first independent poll of the race.

The race so far

Wiener, a moderate by San Francisco standards, has run on his record of pro-housing bills in Sacramento. Chan, from the city's progressive wing, has aligned herself with labor unions and activists who say Wiener is too close to business. For the money behind both campaigns, see our report on CA-11 fundraising and outside spending, and our story on Katie Porter's endorsement of Wiener. Every other local race is on our Bay Area Election 2026 hub.