Democrats are on pace for 229 House seats in the CBS News/YouGov House model, a lead that has been durable but not expanding heading into the Nov. 3 midterms, CBS News reported Sunday.

The numbers

  • House estimate: Democrats 229, Republicans 206, with a range from 215 Democratic seats (a GOP majority of 220) up to 237 Democratic seats, according to the poll toplines.
  • Trump approval: 39% approve and 61% disapprove of the job he is doing. On inflation, 27% approve and 73% disapprove.
  • Motivation: More than seven in 10 people voting for Democrats say their vote for Congress is to oppose Trump, CBS reported.

Republicans' path

CBS said Republicans still have a "very narrow path" to keep the House. Undecided or uncertain voters tend to profile as more Republican, and voters who say they will only "probably" or "maybe" vote lean GOP. "If they become motivated, this can all change," CBS wrote.

The survey of 2,355 U.S. adults was conducted Oct. 21-23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points overall and 3.0 points for likely voters.

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