A strong El Niño winter could bring more than heavy rain. A report released this week by the University of California, Davis, warns that storms combined with high tides could push water onto some of the Bay Area's busiest infrastructure.
The report
The report, "Coastal Flooding Risks for California," comes from Fraser Shilling, director of the UC Davis Road Ecology Center. It follows the center's 2016 report, which warned of flood risk along Highway 37. "We face the risk — though not the certainty — of catastrophic flooding in a variety of coastal towns this winter," Shilling said. "It's important to be informed of risk so you can make decisions."
UC Davis says that earlier this month in Long Beach and Newport Beach, a Kelvin wave combined with high tide and waves to add 2 to 3 feet of sea level. To estimate local risk, Shilling used Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Zone Map.
Bay Area hot spots
- At about 2 feet: airports and low-lying beaches and marshes near the Bay Bridge begin to flood.
- At 2 to 3 feet: parts of SFO and Oakland International Airport, Corte Madera, San Rafael and West Oakland could flood, at least temporarily.
- Highway 37: the most obvious risk. Shilling said a blowout of a state-owned levee along the Petaluma River west of Lakeville Highway could close the highway and leave about 6 square miles of farmland up to 3 feet underwater.
SFist notes the list also includes the Bay Bridge toll plaza and Treasure Island. Caltrans is already doing emergency storm preparation at several closure points on Highway 37, according to UC Davis.
Already a preview
SFist says high tides over the weekend and into Tuesday flooded parts of southern Marin, Palo Alto and the Embarcadero. Mayor Daniel Lurie also declared a local emergency last week, which lets city departments buy flood barriers, pumps and generators faster.