Commuter trains between the city of Napa and the Vallejo Ferry Terminal could cost $2 billion to $3.5 billion to launch and $43 million to $47 million a year to run, according to a newly released feasibility study covered by the Napa Valley Register.

The Napa Valley Transportation Authority (NVTA) completed the study in partnership with the Solano Transportation Authority. NVTA says the study looked at possible rail corridors, service concepts, ridership, infrastructure needs and costs for passenger rail linking Napa County to Vallejo and the wider regional network.

The big caveat: 2050 dollars

The cost figures are in 2050 dollars because the study treats this as a long-range project, the Register reported. Based on inflation over the past quarter century, the amounts in today's dollars might be roughly half as large. Erik Mumm of consulting firm Kimley-Horn, which did the study, called the estimates "very preliminary." He added that the number "may seem shockingly large" but is "relatively in line" with what new passenger rail service costs elsewhere in the country.

What the trains would look like

  • Trains would run between Napa and the Vallejo Ferry Terminal in about 30 minutes.
  • Napa Junction, near American Canyon, would be the hub. There, riders could transfer to a separately proposed train between Novato and Fairfield-Suisun City.
  • Tracks already exist between Napa and Vallejo but can only safely handle 18 mph. They would need upgrades to reach 79 mph.

Buses first

Mumm said improving bus service from Napa through American Canyon to Vallejo is a first step toward passenger rail, because it would help build ridership for eventual trains. When the Solano Transportation Authority board discussed the study Sept. 9, Benicia Mayor Steve Young said cheaper bus improvements, such as a bus lane on Highway 29, are a good place to start. He added that the study "does sort of raise the issue of how feasible it really is to do train connections, at least between Napa and Vallejo."

Not everyone thinks it has to cost that much. Michael Setty, a Napa County resident and president of the Train Riders Association of California, told the Register that startup costs could be lower. An article he co-authored in the July issue of the group's California Rail News said service between St. Helena and Vallejo could be set up for $400 million in today's dollars, with top speeds of 59 mph. "It's not cheap," Setty said. "But on the other hand, it's not necessarily that expensive."

What's next

NVTA says it is now working on a Station Area Plan for southern Napa County and American Canyon to identify a possible future rail station location. The agency says it will include public input. NVTA also says the cities of Napa and Vallejo took part in the rail study, and that it included talks with the Napa Valley Wine Train, Caltrans, SMART and the Capitol Corridor. The Register reported that what steps, if any, local transportation officials take next remains to be seen.