Democratic challenger Eric Jones released two polls Wednesday, Oct. 28, that show him ahead of fellow Democrat Rep. Mike Thompson in California's 4th Congressional District. Both polls were commissioned and paid for by the Jones campaign.

The numbers

  • Fulcrum Strategy Group: Jones 53%, Thompson 40%. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters from Oct. 18 to 20 and has a 4.9% margin of error, according to both SFGATE and the Napa Valley Register.
  • David Binder Research: The two outlets reported this poll differently. SFGATE reported Jones ahead 45% to 35% among 600 respondents. The Napa Valley Register reported Jones ahead 52% to 40% in an Oct. 15–21 survey of 600 likely voters with a 4% margin of error. The Register said a July poll by the same firm had Thompson leading by 13 points, according to a Jones news release.

SFGATE noted that these are among the first public looks at the race and that the New York Times, which tracks congressional polling, had not cited any polls in the district. Internal polls released by one campaign are not independent measurements and should be read with that in mind.

What the campaigns say

"These numbers show that voters across this district are ready for change, and our coalition is built to deliver it," Jones campaign manager Brian Parvizshahi said in a news release. Thompson campaign manager Thomas Dowling told the Register that Jones "is so desperate to buy a seat in Congress that he's using the millions he earned profiting off people's pain to try and do it." He added, "Mike Thompson will fight Trump and deliver for this district while Eric Jones is only in it for himself."

The race

Thompson, 75, was first elected to Congress in 1998 and sits on the House Ways and Means Committee. Jones, 35, is a San Francisco venture capitalist and political newcomer. The Register reported that Jones has put more than $15 million of his own money into an $18 million campaign. Thompson reported raising $5.5 million as of Oct. 20, including $2.4 million from political committees. SFGATE reported that Jones has promised to end federal income tax on the first $150,000 of income and to break PG&E's power monopoly in Northern California. Thompson has pointed to more than $790 million he says he secured for fire survivors and flood protection.

Republicans could tip the race. Third-place primary finisher Ray Riehle, a Republican, endorsed Jones, and Thompson has promoted endorsements from 10 local Republican leaders. The district covers Napa, Colusa, Sutter and Yuba counties and parts of Sonoma, Lake, Yolo, Sacramento and Placer counties. For a full rundown, see our CA-4 explainer.

How to vote

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls and vote centers close at 8 p.m., and mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days. You can check your registration and ballot status at sos.ca.gov/elections. California lets you register and vote the same day at a vote center.