After a year of campaigning, the race to succeed Rep. Nancy Pelosi in California's 11th Congressional District comes down to Tuesday, Nov. 3. State Sen. Scott Wiener goes in as the favorite. Supervisor Connie Chan, Pelosi's pick, has said she has been outspent before but “never outworked.”

Where the polls stand

A USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab poll taken Oct. 16 to 19 showed Wiener leading 47% to 41% among 454 likely voters, with 9% undecided, the San Francisco Examiner reported. That was just within the poll's 4.6-point margin of error. When undecided voters were pushed to choose, Wiener's lead was 51% to 44%. In the June primary, Wiener took 40.71%, Chan 29.7% and Saikat Chakrabarti 17.87%.

San Francisco State political scientist Jason McDaniel told the Examiner he expects Wiener to win, but said Chan could pull off a surprise with unusually high turnout among Chinese American and Latino voters.

Wiener's ground game

Wiener's campaign projects it will knock on more than 311,000 doors through Election Day, on top of 240,000 phone calls and 2.3 million texts, according to internal data shared with The San Francisco Standard. The operation has 48 paid, full-time canvassers and says it has visited 90% of the roughly 345,000 households in the district. It opened its second field office in the Richmond, inside Chan's own supervisorial district.

Much of that field work is coordinated with Families for an Affordable SF, a super PAC run by longtime adviser Todd David that has spent at least $2.3 million backing Wiener, The Standard reported. Chan's campaign has accused the two of illegal coordination. The Standard noted that a 2024 Federal Election Commission advisory opinion allows candidates and PACs to work together on canvassing. Our earlier story covers the FEC complaint.

Chan's coalition

Between Wiener's campaign and the PACs supporting him, about $14 million is behind him, compared with just over $4 million for Chan, according to The Standard. Chan is relying on unions, tenant groups and her former rival. Chakrabarti will have spent roughly $1 million to fund 150 staffers through the SF Solidarity PAC, which its consultant says has persuaded about 80% of Chakrabarti's primary voters to back Chan.

On Friday, more than 200 Chinese community members, most from the Community Tenants Association, rallied for Chan at Willie “Woo Woo” Wong Playground on Sacramento Street. The night before, Chan prayed at the historic Kong Chow Temple on Stockton Street, as she has in previous races, The Standard reported. 48 Hills editor Tim Redmond argues that Chan's path also runs through west-side homeowners who usually back more moderate candidates but share her opposition to large-scale upzoning and support for reopening the Great Highway to weekday cars.

What's at stake

Either candidate would make history. Chan would be the first Asian American to represent San Francisco in the House, and Wiener would be the city's first openly LGBTQ member of Congress, the Examiner noted. For earlier coverage, see our stories on the USC poll and the final days of the race.

How to vote

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls and vote centers close at 8 p.m., and mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days. You can check your registration and ballot status at sos.ca.gov/elections. California lets you register and vote the same day at a vote center.