A hurricane spinning far out in the eastern Pacific is expected to make an unusual turn toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula and Southern California by the weekend. As of 2 p.m. PDT Wednesday, Hurricane Rachel was about 800 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, drifting west-northwest at about 7 mph with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.
A sharp turn late in the week
For now, high pressure over the western United States is steering Rachel away from land. Forecasters expect that to change near the end of the week, when a large trough of low pressure moves in from the northwest. That should slow the storm, then swing it sharply toward the northeast and speed it up toward Baja California and Southern California.
Cooler ocean water, dry air and strong wind shear should steadily weaken Rachel along the way. The hurricane center's forecast has it reaching the coast of extreme northern Baja California and Southern California at roughly tropical storm strength over the weekend. It expects Rachel to be post-tropical by the time it moves inland around Sunday, though forecasters noted it could still carry tropical-storm-force winds. They also said the track and strength late in the forecast are more uncertain than usual.
What it could mean on land
The hurricane center listed three main hazards. Strong winds and coastal flooding are possible near the coast, and gusty winds could spread into the interior Southwest early next week. Moisture from the storm will raise the chances of rain and flash flooding across the Southwest and northern Baja. Swells partly generated by Rachel are already building and are likely to create life-threatening surf and rip currents through the weekend.
In the Los Angeles area, the storm would follow a record-setting October heat wave. MyNewsLA, citing the National Weather Service, reported that extreme heat warnings remain in effect through Thursday, with temperatures dropping noticeably by Friday. Light rain could reach Los Angeles County as early as Saturday, but Saturday night into Sunday is more likely. Showers could continue Monday. The county could see about half an inch of rain, with up to 2 inches in its eastern mountains. A coastal flood advisory was extended through Tuesday afternoon, and forecasters flagged Sunday's morning high tide as the biggest concern for vulnerable spots like Long Beach.
For Bay Area readers
The forecasts so far focus on Southern California, Baja California and the interior Southwest, not Northern California. Anyone with weekend plans on Southern California beaches should check local weather service updates. The hurricane center's next full advisory was set for 8 p.m. PDT Wednesday.