Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Are Projected to Fall 0.4% This Year, but Total Emissions Are Still a Record

Global carbon emissions from oil, gas and coal are projected to fall 0.4% this year, the first decline in annual fossil-fuel CO2 since the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget report summarized by Live Science. The catch, the same scientists say, is that it is a small dip, partly tied to a war-driven energy shock, and that total CO2 from all sources is still expected to reach a record.

The report was published Nov. 10 in the journal Earth System Science Data and is due to be presented at COP31 in Antalya this week. It projects 38.2 billion metric tons (42.1 billion U.S. tons) of CO2 from fossil fuels this year. "It is an encouraging sign that the growth of emissions is slowing and decarbonisation efforts are starting to make a difference," said Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London, who was not involved in the research. "However, at 0.4%, the projected decline is very small."

Where emissions are falling — and where they are not

Part of the reduction is attributable to 40 countries that have cut emissions over the past decade while growing their economies, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Japan and about 30 countries in the European Union, the researchers reported. Annual CO2 emissions are projected to decrease 0.9% in China, 1.3% in the United States, 1.5% in the European Union and 1% in Japan, while India's are projected to grow 4.4%. Fossil-fuel CO2 from the rest of the world is projected to fall 0.7%, driven mainly by a 1.9% drop in oil emissions.

Some of the report's authors suggested in an accompanying Nature Climate Change paper that the oil drop is a short-term response to supply constraints and higher prices triggered by the Iran conflict. "The war with Iran has resulted in restricted fuel availability and high prices, with a corresponding reduction in demand," Rogelj said. Live Science updated its article Nov. 11 to note that those Iran conclusions came from that companion paper, not from every author of the budget report.

Overall energy demand is actually up. Co-author Judith Hauck of the Alfred Wegener Institute said that based only on demand growth, researchers would have expected fossil CO2 to rise by about 0.8 gigatonnes. About two-thirds of that extra demand is being met by solar, wind and electric vehicles, she said, but the Iran-related price spike also decreased demand by 0.4%. "So only together with the energy crisis did we bring the change in emissions down to negative," Hauck told Live Science. She expects CO2 to rebound if the conflict ends, as it did after the temporary pandemic drop.

The 1.5-degree budget is almost gone

The report found that clean-energy growth is not yet fast enough to drive a steady decline in fossil CO2. Hauck said the authors expect that to happen in the next few years if the push for solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles continues. But CO2 from peat fires, deforestation and forest fires linked to dry El Niño conditions is pushing total emissions from all sources slightly higher, from 42.8 billion metric tons (47.2 billion U.S. tons) last year to a projected record 43.3 billion metric tons (47.7 billion U.S. tons) this year.

That leaves a remaining budget of just 150 billion metric tons (165 billion U.S. tons) of CO2 before warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels — less than four years of emissions at the current rate, the report said. Hauck thinks the 1.5 C target has already been missed without extensive carbon removal. "I'm still hopeful for something between 1.5 and 2 C," she said. "But for 1.5 degrees, we would need to see such a drastic strong drop in emissions."