A growing number of young people are skipping the white-collar track for skilled trades, and San Francisco is seeing the shift up close, from high school shop classes to local job-training programs.

The San Francisco Standard profiled students in the building and construction program at John O'Connell Technical High School, where teens learn to use nail guns, table saws and other tools. One 17-year-old senior told the paper he plans to go straight into carpentry after graduating in May, pointing to the pay, benefits and the sense that construction is harder for AI to replace. The program has ties to the carpenters union, which can lead to apprenticeships.

What the numbers show

National data backs up the trend. In its final spring 2026 enrollment report, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found undergraduate certificate programs, the kind often offered for trades, grew 10.2% from a year earlier, adding about 86,000 students. That was the fastest growth of any undergraduate credential. Bachelor's degree enrollment rose just 1%.

At community colleges specifically, certificate enrollment climbed 12.1%, according to Community College Daily, and mechanical and repair technician programs grew 9.8%. A separate Clearinghouse breakdown reported by trade outlet HomePros News found enrollment in HVAC programs at public two-year colleges up 16.7% this spring, after a 30% jump the year before.

Not every enrollment change is about attitudes. The Clearinghouse's data reflects many factors, and the Standard noted that long-term college enrollment forecasts are also shaped by falling birth rates.

A local program changes course

The most telling sign in San Francisco may be at JVS, a workforce nonprofit. A program director there told the Standard it recently shut down its program training people for tech jobs because entry-level tech hiring has fallen so sharply. It now puts its resources into its healthcare and skilled trades programs instead.

Advocates say the appeal is practical: training as an electrician or plumber takes far less time than a four-year degree, often includes paid on-the-job learning, and can lead to running your own business. With AI-driven cuts hitting entry-level office roles across the Bay Area this year, that math is getting harder for young people to ignore.