A Supreme Court ruling this year that further weakened the Voting Rights Act raised the prospect of a record drop in Black representation in Congress. A midterm blue wave softened the blow, but the number is still set to fall, an NPR analysis found.
Based on Associated Press race calls as of Thursday afternoon, the incoming House is set to include at least 60 Black members, including nonvoting members, down from 63 in the current House. That is just one shy of the record loss of four Black representatives after the 1876 election, near the end of Reconstruction, NPR reported. Mid-decade redistricting, retirements and bids for higher office all contributed. High Black turnout, especially in the South, helped offset a steeper decline. Advocates warn that maps drawn in the coming years, including after the 2030 census, still threaten Black representation.
The most closely watched hold was Rep. Shomari Figures, a Black Democrat, who won reelection in Alabama's 2nd District after Republican state leaders made the seat far more GOP-leaning. Figures became the district's first Black representative after 2024, when a lower court had ordered a map that gave Black voters a realistic chance to elect their preferred candidate. After Louisiana v. Callais weakened the Voting Rights Act's protections against racial discrimination in mapmaking, the Supreme Court's conservative majority allowed Alabama to redraw the district. A lower court had found the new lines "tainted by intentional race-based discrimination" and said they would "afford Black-preferred candidates zero chance of winning there." The same ruling led Louisiana Democrat Cleo Fields not to seek reelection after his opportunity district was struck down.
"It took a remarkable level of turnout in order for [Figures] to be able to win," said Cliff Albright, co-founder of Black Voters Matter. "Some are calling it a blue wave. For us, particularly here in the South, we're calling it a Black wave." New maps in Texas and Florida undid some Black-represented districts, NPR reported, but other wins filled in: North Carolina Rep. Don Davis held his redrawn seat; Cyril Jefferson and LaKesha Womack flipped districts long held by white Republicans; and Democratic socialists Melat Kiros of Colorado and Donavan McKinney of Michigan will add to the caucus. In Georgia, Democrats' statewide gains lowered the near-term redistricting threat; outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp said he will not call a special session before handing the office to Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms, who will be the first Black woman elected governor in the country. Albright cautioned that relying on a wave year is "simply not sustainable" if Black voting power remains diluted in future, less favorable cycles.