The Trump administration wants to give more federal transit money to places where more people are getting married and having babies. Bay Area leaders say that could squeeze more than $8 billion in grant requests for BART's Silicon Valley extension to downtown San Jose and San Francisco's Portal rail tunnel.

Why it matters: The two projects are the Bay Area's biggest rail expansions, and both still need federal grant agreements signed. The Federal Transit Administration is taking public comment on the draft through Nov. 16.

What the draft does

The FTA published draft guidance for its Capital Investment Grants program on Oct. 1, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Projects with a medium or better rating would start at a 40% federal share, then move up or down based mostly on cost-effectiveness and ridership. A low cost-effectiveness rating would cost a project 25 points.

On top of that, a project could get up to 5 extra points each for birth rates and marriage rates above the national average within a one-mile buffer of its corridor, for up to 10 points.

The Bay Area money on the line

  • BART Silicon Valley Phase II: VTA will seek a federal grant of up to $5.1 billion next year toward the $12.6 billion, six-mile tunnel with four new stations under San Jose, the Public Press reported.
  • The Portal (Downtown Rail Extension): Final paperwork for a $3.38 billion grant, covering 41% of heavy-construction costs, is due next June.

"This is probably the most significant change in the guidance in 15 years," said Adam Van de Water, executive director of the Transbay Joint Powers Authority. He said low birth rates would not subtract money from grant requests as submitted, but the effects are "vague."

VTA said in a statement it is confident the BART extension will keep the existing federal cost-share ratio. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission's Rebecca Long said a major delay could cost the BART project almost half a billion dollars a year.

What the administration says

In its notice, the FTA said the changes put "the emphasis on cost-effectiveness and ridership" and "will ensure Federal taxpayer funds are supporting worthy investments."

The FTA says the birth and marriage bonuses follow a March 2025 order from Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy telling DOT to "give preference to communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average."

The pushback

UC Berkeley transportation researcher Andrea Broaddus called it an "ideological leap." CRS noted research showing high birth and marriage rates tend to sit farther from urban centers, where fewer people ride transit.

More on local transit money: AC Transit's cut plans if the regional measure fails.