AAA and TSA Expect a Record Thanksgiving Travel Period, With Sunday, Nov. 30, the Biggest Day to Fly

Holiday travel forecasts published Thursday point to a record Thanksgiving period, even after a government shutdown disrupted flights last month, CBS News reported.

The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen nearly 18 million people from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the Tuesday after the holiday. AAA projects that 81.8 million people will travel 50 miles or more — "an additional 1.6 million travelers compared to last Thanksgiving, setting a new overall record," the auto club said, according to CBS. Most of those people will go by car: AAA expects at least 73 million drivers, nearly 90% of Thanksgiving travelers and 1.3 million more than last year. That number "could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations," AAA noted.

The days most likely to be jammed

Eight of the busiest days in TSA history have already been this year, CBS reported, and the Sunday after Thanksgiving could join the list or set a new record. The agency is planning to screen more than 3 million travelers on Sunday, Nov. 30, alone. "We are projecting that the Sunday after Thanksgiving will be one of the busiest travel days in TSA history," Adam Stahl, the senior official performing the duties of deputy TSA administrator, said in a statement.

Airlines for America, a trade group, also expects Sunday, Nov. 30, to be the busiest day of the period, with 3.39 million travelers, followed by Monday, Dec. 1, with 3.09 million, and the Friday after Thanksgiving, with 3.06 million. Overall, the group predicts U.S. airlines will fly a record 31 million passengers from Friday, Nov. 21, through Monday, Dec. 1.

The FAA said it expects this Thanksgiving period to be the busiest in 15 years, with Tuesday, Nov. 25, the peak day for flights and more than 52,000 flights expected nationwide that day. In the New York area, the Port Authority expects Sunday, Nov. 30, and Monday, Dec. 1, to be the busiest days at Kennedy, Newark, LaGuardia and Stewart. AAA, citing Hertz, said Wednesday is expected to be the busiest car-rental pickup day. INRIX, a transportation analytics firm, said the most congested driving times in major metro areas will be Tuesday from 12 to 9 p.m. and Wednesday from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. before Thanksgiving, with heavy traffic most of the day on the Sunday return.

After the shutdown, and a look at the weather

The forecasts follow nationwide air-travel disruptions during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, CBS reported, when some air traffic controllers called out after being asked to work without pay, leading to delays and ordered flight cuts. Those cutbacks ended last week. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Monday that "things look good from the air traffic control side. We are back to staffing levels that we had before the shutdown. I believe." He added, "If you can still get a ticket and you can still fly and your family still wants to see you, book that ticket, jump on a flight and don't be afraid to fly this season."

CBS also relayed a weather outlook from meteorologist Nikki Nolan: one storm system taking shape Monday would bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the South, then move into the Ohio Valley and Northeast, while a second, more powerful system would deliver cold and snow to the northern U.S. and Great Lakes, with totals of up to 14 inches possible near the Canadian border and lake-effect snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Those are forecast details, not guaranteed conditions for any one traveler's route.