San Francisco is getting rid of its elementary school lottery. Here is where the plan stands, and what a new data analysis suggests it could change.

What's decided, and what isn't

On Oct. 13, the Board of Education voted to replace the lottery with a neighborhood-based system, according to SFUSD. Every family would be guaranteed a seat at an elementary school near home, even if they apply late. Citywide programs such as language immersion, K-8 schools and special day classes would still be filled by lottery.

The district says the vote sets a direction, not the final policy. Attendance boundaries, tiebreakers for citywide schools, program placement and sibling priority are all still undecided. The board is scheduled to review a draft on March 16, 2027, and hold a final vote on April 13, 2027. Applications under the new system start in fall 2027 for the 2028-29 school year. Current elementary students are not affected.

The gap between neighborhoods and schools

A San Francisco Standard analysis of district, state and census data found that at 26 of SFUSD's 58 neighborhood elementary schools, the largest racial group among students is different from the largest group among children living in the attendance area.

Near Sutro Elementary in the Richmond, 60% of children are white and 12% are Asian. At the school, 78% of students are Asian and 9% are white. Around Cobb Elementary in Pacific Heights, 62% of children are white. At the school, 44% of students are Black, 32% are Hispanic and 5% are white. The Standard estimates about five families a year who live near Cobb are assigned there for kindergarten.

If each school's students matched the makeup of its neighborhood, the number of schools where one racial group is at least 60% of students would fall from 20 to six, the analysis found. Whether that happens depends on how boundaries are redrawn and which families enroll.

Where the money goes

The Standard found that two-thirds of the $8.9 million parent groups reported raising went to the 18 schools where fewer than a third of students are low-income. Meanwhile, district funding per student typically runs $8,000 to $12,000, with a median of about $9,300, and is highest at small and high-need schools.

Background: parents push back on the plan.