Two newly released polls show Proposition 40, the proposed tax on billionaires, falling short of majority support heading into the Nov. 3 election.

The numbers

  • California Post / McLaughlin & Associates: 52.6% oppose Prop 40, 34.5% support and 11.5% are undecided, according to the poll published Oct. 23.
  • Nestpoint: 54.6% oppose and 34.1% support, according to the firm's Oct. 22 release. Nestpoint said that was a 22.5-point swing from its August poll, which found 48.6% support and 46.6% opposition. Its latest survey was conducted Sept. 27 to Oct. 1 with more than 800 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
  • Earlier poll: A Citrin Center-Politico poll released the previous week found voters narrowly favoring Prop 40, 46% to 43%, the California Post noted.

Prop 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' wealth, primarily to fund health care. Pollster John McLaughlin said arguments that the measure is poorly written and could reach more than billionaires "is resonating." Nestpoint describes itself as a government affairs, finance and private equity firm.

Voter ID split

The same California Post poll found Prop 39, which would require government-issued ID to vote in person, at 45.6% support and 47.8% opposition, with 5.9% undecided. McLaughlin said 91% of Republicans back it and 76% of Democrats oppose it.

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