The Public Policy Institute of California released its last statewide survey before the Nov. 3 election this week. It found a big lead for Democrat Xavier Becerra in the governor's race, slipping support for the Prop 40 billionaire tax and Californians in an exceptionally gloomy mood. The nonpartisan institute interviewed 1,728 California adults, including 1,086 likely voters, from Oct. 16 to 22.

Governor

Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton 61% to 37% among likely voters, a 24-point margin that includes a 13-point lead among independents, PPIC said. KTVU reported that much of Becerra's support comes from the Bay Area and Los Angeles, while Hilton draws most of his from the Central Valley.

Ballot measures

  • Prop 40 (billionaire tax): 46% of likely voters say yes, down from 52% last month. KTVU reported 52% say no. "Propositions 41 and 42, which could effectively nullify Prop 40 even if it was passed, are now polling better than the billionaire tax," PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare said.
  • Prop 39 (voter ID): nearly 60% of likely voters oppose it, according to PPIC.
  • Housing and research bonds: more than 60% support Props 1 and 37. 57% say yes on Prop 38, the $8.4 billion immunology research bond.
  • Prop 43: a majority oppose this measure, which would make local tax increases harder to pass.
  • Prop 45: 50% oppose and 46% support this change to the state's main environmental law to speed some construction.

A sour mood

Eighty-two percent of adults say the country is headed in the wrong direction. PPIC says that is the highest share since it began asking two decades ago. Nearly eight in ten expect bad economic times in the state and nation over the next year. "If you're looking for one word to describe Californians' mood as they are filling out their ballots, it would be gloomy, very gloomy," Baldassare said.

Seventy-eight percent of adults disapprove of President Trump's job performance, his highest disapproval among Californians across both terms, PPIC said. Seventy-one percent of Democratic likely voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about congressional races, compared with 46% of Republicans. KTVU reported that 63% of respondents said they plan to vote for a Democrat for Congress. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 points for likely voters.

How to vote

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls and vote centers close at 8 p.m., and mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days. You can check your registration and ballot status at sos.ca.gov/elections. California lets you register and vote the same day at a vote center.

More races and measures: our 2026 election hub.