Across most of the country, people hunting for an apartment have more bargaining power than they did three years ago. In the Bay Area, it has gone the other way, and fast.
What the index measures
The rental site Zumper released a new Renter Leverage Index this week that grades 44 large U.S. rental markets from A to F. It blends four signals from Zumper's own listings, namely rent changes, free-month offers, price cuts and how long new units sit empty, with Census Bureau data on vacancy and new construction. An A means renters hold the cards; an F means landlords do. The grades use June figures for 2023 through 2026.
Nationally, the picture improved for tenants. Zumper found 29 of the 44 cities moved up a grade over that period and only three slipped, helped by the biggest apartment-building wave in decades. The share of large complexes offering at least a month of free rent roughly doubled, from 10% to 21%. Austin, Denver and Nashville were ranked the most renter-friendly.
San Francisco: the steepest drop
San Francisco fell two full grades, from a C to an F, the only drop that large in the study. It now ranks 43rd of 44, ahead of only Virginia Beach. Zumper put the city's median one-bedroom rent at $4,060 in June, up 21.9%, or $730, in a year, the fastest growth of any market it tracked. Free-month deals, which 15% of large San Francisco complexes offered in June 2023, have vanished, and the typical unit that leased in June was listed for just 11 days.
Zumper said renter leverage in the city peaked in February 2024 and began sliding late that year as hiring tied to artificial intelligence brought demand back.
San Jose and the rest of the region
San Jose ranked 40th, dropping from a C to a D, with a median one-bedroom of $2,760, up 2.6%. Zumper flagged one quirk there: 21% of San Jose listings showed a price cut, the highest share of any city, which it read as landlords listing high and then trimming rather than offering move-in specials. Metro rental vacancy in San Jose was 0.5%, the lowest in the table. NBC Bay Area reported that Zumper believes the AI-driven economic boom may be adding to the shortage of South Bay rentals.
Oakland wasn't graded, because the index left out cities that share a metro area with a larger principal city. Zumper's separate listings page puts Oakland's current median rent across all rentals at about $2,323 a month, up 5.8% from a year earlier.
Zumper's advice for tight markets like these is to move quickly and budget for competition. It also warned the national renter's market may not last, since permits for new housing have fallen in 36 of the 44 metros since 2023.