What Happens to South Bay Transit if the Regional Sales Tax Fails? VTA Holds Steady, Caltrain and BART Warn of Deep Cuts

Santa Clara County riders have less on the line than much of the Bay Area if voters reject the regional transit tax on Nov. 3, San José Spotlight reports. But the county's commuter rail lines could still take a hard hit.

What's on the ballot

The Regional Transit Measure, authorized by Senate Bill 63, would raise the sales tax by half a cent in Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties and by one cent in San Francisco for 14 years, starting April 1, 2027. It would bring in about $980 million a year, with roughly $245 million, about a quarter, going to VTA. The measure qualified this summer with an estimated 241,964 valid signatures in Santa Clara County, and an earlier poll found the county had the weakest support of the five.

VTA: no cuts, but no growth

VTA projects a $15 million deficit by 2027 but isn't planning service reductions whether the measure passes or fails. Board chair Sergio Lopez, a Campbell councilmember, told the Spotlight that the real effect of a loss would be that service "would not get better," while passage would let the agency make improvements.

Caltrain and BART: bigger gaps

Caltrain expects a $75 million deficit in the fiscal year starting next July. If the measure fails, it has outlined cuts starting next summer: trains once an hour at weekday peak instead of every 15 minutes, last service at 9 p.m. instead of 1 a.m., more than a third of stations closed, and no weekend trains. Pat Burt, VTA's representative on the Caltrain board, said service from San Jose through Morgan Hill to Gilroy "would very much be on the table" because it has the highest subsidy per rider.

BART, facing a $370 million gap, has warned of cutting operating hours by 70%, raising fares 50%, closing 15 stations and shrinking the system by a quarter. The $13 billion BART extension to downtown San Jose and Santa Clara would get no money from the measure.

The other side

Opponents with the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit say agencies are presenting worst-case scenarios rather than managing the money they already get. Supporters point to a SPUR study last month estimating the evening Bay Bridge commute could take 43 minutes longer if transit is cut, though the bottlenecks it cited are all north of Santa Clara County.