The sales tax meant to rescue the Bay Area's biggest transit systems is short of the simple majority it needs, according to a poll released this week by Joint Venture Silicon Valley and the Bay Area News Group.
The survey, conducted by Embold Research from Aug. 5 to 18, found 48% of respondents would vote for November's Regional Transit Measure, 34% would vote against it and 18% were undecided. It reached 1,801 adults in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties and has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. Because the measure reached the ballot through signature gathering, it needs only more than 50% to pass.
Who supports it and who doesn't
The divide runs largely along age and housing lines. Support reached 69% among adults under 35 and 60% among renters. Opposition was highest among people ages 50 to 64, at 46%, and among those 65 and older, at 42%. Among homeowners, 47% said they were against the tax, compared with 23% of renters.
What the measure would do
The tax would add half a percentage point to the sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties and a full point in San Francisco. It is expected to raise about $980 million a year for 14 years for bus, rail and ferry service. The district behind it was created by the Connect Bay Area Act, Senate Bill 63, which the Legislature passed in 2025.
Agencies have described what happens if it fails. BART has said it would likely close at 9 p.m. instead of midnight, run trains every 30 minutes and cut to three lines outside peak hours. Caltrain has proposed ending weekend service and closing more than a third of its stations. AC Transit is weighing a 16% service cut, and Muni has said it could eliminate up to 20 routes.
The arguments
Backers, including the policy group SPUR, say cuts would push more drivers onto already crowded roads, and a SPUR report projected far longer Bay Bridge and Caldecott Tunnel delays if both this measure and San Francisco's Proposition H fail. Opponents with the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, sponsored by the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association, argue agencies should cut costs or seek state help first.
The Yes campaign told SFGATE the poll doesn't reflect the full case voters will hear before Nov. 3.