Bay Area Transit Tax Is Trailing in a New Poll With Five Weeks Until Election Day

With five weeks until Election Day, a new regional poll finds Bay Area voters split on the sales-tax measure aimed at keeping BART, Muni, Caltrain and other systems from deep service cuts.

Only 48% of respondents said they would vote for November's Regional Transit Measure, according to a poll conducted by Embold Research for Joint Venture Silicon Valley and the Bay Area News Group, SFGATE reported. Thirty-four percent said they would vote no, and 18% were undecided. The measure needs more than 50% support to pass. If Election Day matches that 48% figure, it would fail.

What the tax would do

The measure would raise the sales tax by half a percentage point in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties and by a full percentage point in San Francisco for 14 years. It is expected to generate roughly $980 million to $1 billion a year, KALW and SFGATE reported. San José Spotlight said about $245 million a year would go to VTA if voters approve the tax, which would start April 1, 2027 under Senate Bill 63.

Supporters warn of deep cuts without the money. Agencies have said Muni could cut service by about 30% and cancel around 20 lines, and BART has warned it might cut about 70% of service and close 15 stations as early as January, SFGATE reported. Caltrain has projected peak weekday trains falling from every 15 minutes to once an hour, ending service at 9 p.m. instead of 1 a.m., closing more than a third of stations and dropping weekend service if the tax fails, according to San José Spotlight.

Who supports and who opposes

KALW reported that more than 220 elected leaders and 200 business and community groups have endorsed the measure, and that the yes campaign has raised more than $6 million, including donations from Anthropic, Kaiser Permanente and labor unions. In the Embold poll, 69% of adults under 35 and 60% of renters backed the tax, while adults ages 50 to 64 were the most opposed, at 46% no, SFGATE reported.

Opponents, including the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, argue a sales tax hits lower-income households harder and that agencies should tighten budgets first. KALW cited the group's example that a family spending about $20,000 a year on taxable goods could pay $100 to $200 more, depending on the county. Yes campaign spokesperson Jeff Cretan told SFGATE the Embold question left out language about traffic, pollution and reliability; he pointed to the campaign's own July poll showing 54% support.

Voters in five counties decide on Nov. 3 whether the region's largest transit operators get a long-term sales-tax lifeline or face the cuts already sketched in agency forecasts.