Less than a month before Election Day, the regional sales tax meant to keep Bay Area trains and buses running is polling short of what it needs to pass. A survey released this week found 48% of respondents planning to vote yes on the Regional Transit Measure, 34% planning to vote no and 18% still undecided, SFGATE reported. The measure needs a simple majority.
What the measure would do
The Regional Transit Measure, which appears on the Nov. 3 ballot, would add a sales tax for 14 years across five counties: one percentage point in San Francisco and half a point in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. It is expected to raise roughly $980 million a year. The money would go to the region's transit systems, including BART, Muni, Caltrain, AC Transit, VTA and SamTrans, along with smaller operators. The ballot question also mentions safety and cleanliness improvements, some road and pothole repairs, and new financial oversight rules.
State lawmakers cleared the way for the vote in 2025 with Senate Bill 63, written by state Sens. Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Jesse Arreguín of Berkeley.
What's at stake if it fails
Transit agencies have laid out steep contingency plans. According to the agencies' forecasts cited by SFGATE, Muni could cut service by about 30% and drop around 20 lines, while BART could cut about 70% of its service and close 15 stations as soon as January. Caltrain has floated ending weekend service and running weekday trains only once an hour. A September brief from the urban policy nonprofit SPUR estimated the cuts could push more people into cars and roughly double commute times across the Bay Bridge.
The arguments
Supporters, who KALW reports include more than 220 elected officials and about 200 business and community groups, say the tax would give agencies dependable funding and prevent what they call catastrophic service cuts. The yes campaign has raised more than $9 million. Its spokesperson, Jeff Cretan, told SFGATE the new poll's wording didn't match the ballot language and pointed to the campaign's own July poll showing 54% support.
Opponents, including the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, argue that a sales tax falls hardest on lower-income households and that agencies haven't trimmed budgets to match lower ridership. KALW noted that a household spending about $20,000 a year on taxable goods would pay roughly $100 to $200 more, depending on the county.
Who is for and against
The poll, conducted Aug. 5 to 18 by Embold Research for Joint Venture Silicon Valley and the Bay Area News Group, surveyed 1,801 adults and has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. Younger residents and renters were the strongest supporters, with 69% of adults under 35 and 60% of renters in favor. Opposition was highest among people aged 50 to 64, 46% of whom said they would vote no.